Article 1- COP 2028

Download Article

--------------------------------------

Naila Nazir, Ph.D.

Postdoc (Fulbright) – Environmental Economics

Economics Department, University of Peshawar

 

Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: From History to the Present

The activities and outcomes of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are particularly relevant to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The primary connection lies with SDG 13: "Climate Action." SDG 13 encompasses a range of targets related to climate change mitigation, adaptation, capacity-building, and financing.

The history of the Conference of the Parties (COP) reflects the international community's ongoing commitment to addressing the urgent and complex challenges of climate change. Originating from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992, COP meetings have been pivotal moments for global collaboration. Over the years, COP sessions have played a crucial role in shaping and refining international climate agreements. Each COP builds on the achievements and challenges of its predecessors, with a shared goal of finding effective solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

As a testament to the evolving nature of the climate crisis, COPs have witnessed the development and adoption of landmark agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. These agreements outline commitments and strategies to limit global temperature rise, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and support vulnerable communities. COP meetings also serve as platforms for negotiations, knowledge-sharing, and the mobilization of resources to address the multifaceted dimensions of climate change.

As we explore the history of COP, it becomes evident that these conferences are not merely gatherings of nations; they are critical junctures where the world collectively grapples with the pressing need for coordinated action. Each COP session contributed to the ongoing global dialogue on climate change, shaping the trajectory of international efforts to create a sustainable and resilient future for our planet.

The conference hosts the participation of delegations from all 199 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, encompassing 195 states. The designated venue for all official sessions, meetings, side events, and press conferences during COP is referred to as the "blue zone." The "green zone," overseen by the host country serves as a platform for diverse stakeholders, including youth representatives, artists, businesses, regional and local decision-makers, and various civil society actors. In this space, participants engage in discussions, presentations, and the exchange of ideas.

The historic glimpse of COP. is given in the table below:

Table 1: Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

COP	Location	Conference Name	Date
COP 1	Berlin, Germany	COP. 1	28 March - 7 April 1995
COP 2	Geneva, Switzerland	COP 2	1996
COP 3	Kyoto, Japan	Kyoto Climate Change Conference	December 1997
COP 4	Buenos Aires, Argentina	Buenos Aires Climate Change Conference	November 1998
COP 5	Bonn, Germany	Bonn Climate Change Conference	October 1999
COP 6	The Hague, Netherlands	The Hague Climate Change Conference	November 2000
COP 6-2	Bonn, Germany	Bonn Climate Change Conference	July 2001
COP 7	Marrakech, Morocco	Marrakech Climate Change Conference	October 2001
COP 8	New Delhi, India	New Delhi Climate Change Conference	October 2002
COP 9	Milan, Italy	Milan Climate Change Conference	December 2003
COP 10	Buenos Aires, Argentina	Buenos Aires Climate Change Conference	December 2004
COP 11	Montreal, Canada	Montreal Climate Change Conference	December 2005
COP 12	Nairobi, Kenya	Nairobi Climate Change Conference	November 2006
COP 13	Bali, Indonesia	Bali Climate Change Conference	December 2007
COP 14	Poznan, Poland	Poznan Climate Change Conference	December 2008
COP 15	Copenhagen, Denmark	Copenhagen Climate Change Conference	December 2009
COP 16	Cancun, Mexico	Cancún Climate Change Conference	November 2010
COP 17	Durban, South Africa	Durban Climate Change Conference	November 2011
COP 18	Doha, Qatar	Doha Climate Change Conference	November 2012
COP 19	Warsaw, Poland	Warsaw Climate Change Conference	November 2013
COP 20	Lima, Peru	Lima Climate Change Conference	December 2014
COP 21	Paris, France	Paris Climate Change Conference	November 2015
COP 22	Marrakech, Morocco	Marrakech Climate Change Conference	November 2016
COP 23	Bonn, Germany	UN Climate Change Conference	November 2017
COP 24	Katowice, Poland	Katowice Climate Change Conference	December 2018
COP 25	Madrid, Spain	UN Climate Change Conference	December 2019
COP 26	Glasgow, United Kingdom	Glasgow Climate Change Conference	October-November 2021
COP 27	Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt	Sharm el-Sheikh Climate Change Conference	November 2022
COP 28	Dubai, United Arab Emirates	UN Climate Change Conference - United Arab Emirates	November 30 to December 12, 2023

 COP1 marked the establishment of the Conference of the Parties (COP) and saw the adoption of the Berlin Mandate, laying the groundwork for the Kyoto Protocol. However, it faced limitations in achieving specific emission reduction targets. COP3 achieved success with the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, establishing legally binding emission reduction targets. However, the failure lay in the limited participation by major emitters, notably the non-ratification of the protocol by the U.S. COP6 experienced success in agreements on Kyoto Protocol implementation but faced failure with the collapse of negotiations due to compliance issues. COP11 succeeded with the adoption of the Montreal Action Plan, addressing future commitments beyond Kyoto, but faced challenges in defining emission reduction targets post-2012. COP15 recognized the need to limit global temperature rise and pledged financial assistance but failed due to a lack of legally binding agreements and the absence of a comprehensive accord. COP21 achieved the historic Paris Agreement and commitments from nearly all countries but faced criticism for non-binding pledges. COP24 succeeded with the adoption of the Katowice Rulebook[1] but saw limited progress in increasing emission reduction commitments. COP26 made progress with agreements on emissions and climate finance but faced challenges with the phase-out of coal and disappointment over the final negotiation text. COP27 saw less successful advancements in mitigation, with efforts to sustain the momentum from the previous year not meeting success. Each COP reflects a complex mix of achievements and challenges in the global response to climate change.

Two pivotal developments in the global effort to combat climate change are the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement are international treaties aimed at addressing global climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering international cooperation.

1.      Kyoto Protocol (1997):

·  The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, as an extension of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

·  It established legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries, known as Annex I parties, over the commitment period from 2008 to 2012.

·  The protocol introduced three flexible mechanisms – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and Emissions Trading – to help countries meet their targets more cost-effectively.

·  Despite its significance, the Kyoto Protocol had limitations, such as not including binding emission reduction commitments for developing countries and not achieving global consensus on emission reductions.

2.      Paris Agreement (2015):

·  The Paris Agreement is a landmark international treaty within the UNFCCC framework, adopted in 2015 during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris, France.

·  Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement takes a more inclusive approach by including commitments from all countries, both developed and developing, to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.

· Instead of binding targets, the Paris Agreement relies on voluntary nationally determined contributions (NDCs), where each country sets its own emission reduction goals and regularly reports on their progress.

· The agreement emphasizes a bottom-up approach, encouraging countries to enhance their commitments over time and promoting transparency, accountability, and financial support to assist developing nations in both mitigation and adaptation efforts.

·  The Paris Agreement represents a more inclusive and flexible framework, reflecting the recognition that global climate action requires collaborative efforts from all nations.

In summary, while the Kyoto Protocol focused on binding emission reduction targets for developed countries, the Paris Agreement represents a more inclusive and flexible approach, with voluntary commitments from all countries to address climate change collectively.

Parties involved in the negotiations for the Paris Climate Change Agreement recognized the benefits of international cooperation to reduce emissions and embraced a market-based system. Alongside this, they established a framework for non-market approaches. Market mechanisms, including emissions trading and cap-and-trade systems like the European Union Emissions Trading System (EUETS), offer precise measurements and transparent rules for achieving emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol introduced three market mechanisms: emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and joint implementation (JI). CDM promotes emissions reduction projects in developing countries, while JI incentivizes projects in countries committed to Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets. These mechanisms have facilitated the registration of over 8000 global projects, promoting initiatives such as wind power, bus rapid transit, and efficient cook stoves to generate Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Additionally, non-market approaches to climate policy emphasize cooperative strategies, potentially incorporating fiscal measures like carbon pricing or taxes to discourage emissions.

Parties engaged in mitigating climate change employ varied strategies. Developed countries have established economy-wide emission caps, whereas developing nations typically concentrate on specific programs. Developing countries commit to implementing Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). In the lead-up to the Paris Conference, all countries, irrespective of development status, formulated Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), later known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, mandating Parties to devise and communicate successive NDCs every five years.

The Paris Agreement, in its Article 5, underscores the significance of existing efforts to mitigate climate change through land use activities, particularly in relation to forests and REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). The IPCC's 6th assessment report reveals that the "Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)" sector accounted for 13-21% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 2010-2019. The Convention and Kyoto Protocol have addressed emissions and removals from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) processes. To further support REDD+ implementation, the COP has encouraged Parties, organizations, and stakeholders to share relevant information and directed the secretariat to develop a dedicated REDD+ Web Platform.

Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) is another effort by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, focusing on activities outlined in Article 6 of the Convention and Article 12 of the Paris Agreement. This was established at COP 7 (Seventh Conference of the Parties) in 2001 in Marrakech, Morocco. The primary aim of ACE is to empower everyone in society to participate in climate action. This involves six key elements: climate change education, public awareness, training, public participation, public access to information, and international cooperation. The overarching goal is to ensure widespread engagement and collaboration in addressing climate challenges on a global scale.

In 2010, the COP established the Technology Mechanism with the aim of expediting and enhancing climate technology development and transfer. Building on this, in 2023, the Technology Mechanism introduced the Initiative on Artificial Intelligence for Climate Action (#AI4ClimateAction). This initiative focuses on harnessing the power of AI as a transformative technological tool to advance and amplify climate solutions for mitigation and adaptation actions in developing countries, with particular attention to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). As part of this effort, developing countries, since 2001, have engaged in technology needs assessments (TNAs), a process that not only identifies technology needs for climate mitigation and adaptation but also supports national sustainable development, enhances capacity, and facilitates the implementation of prioritized climate technologies. Over 85 developing countries have participated in TNAs till 2023.

 COP 28.

COP 28, the UN Climate Change Conference held from November 30 to December 12, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, was a crucial multilateral decision-making forum on climate change with nearly universal global participation. The conference held significance as it focused on implementing the Paris Agreement and elevating ambition and action on critical climate goals. These objectives included limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, aiding vulnerable communities in adapting to climate change effects, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

The urgency for action was underscored by the findings of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicating the need for a 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. COP 28 provided a vital opportunity to identify global solutions for limiting temperature rise, inform countries' preparations for revised and more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due by 2025, and accelerate the green transition.

Discussions at COP 28 encompassed critical topics such as the details of the loss and damage finance facility to assist vulnerable communities, establishing a global goal on finance to support developing countries in addressing climate change, accelerating both an energy and just transition, and addressing the substantial emissions gap. The global stocktake at the conference revealed that the world is not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emphasizing the pressing need for meaningful and immediate action. The global stocktake takes place every five years, with the first-ever stocktake set to conclude at COP 28. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.”

The Stocktake's report underscores the positive impact of the Paris Agreement and subsequent Climate Action on curbing emissions, as evident in the significant reduction of projected global warming. The initial estimate in 2011 projected a temperature rise of 3.7-4.8°C by 2100, whereas the COP 27 in 2022 revised it down to 2.4-2.60°C, with further reductions to 1.7-2.1°C if all pledges are fulfilled. However, the optimism wanes with the findings from COP 28 in 2023, indicating that the world is not on track in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. The alarming call to halt harmful emissions by 2025 emphasizes the urgency of global efforts, revealing that failure to do so could jeopardize the chances of limiting temperature rise to crucial thresholds—1.5°C with a 50% likelihood and 2.0°C with a 60% likelihood. This finding highlights the delicate balance between progress and the pressing need for immediate action to avert climate crisis consequences.

Key decisions on the global stocktake at COP 28 can be leveraged by governments to enhance ambition in their upcoming climate action plans due by 2025. The conference also featured distinct zones – the official sessions, meetings, side events, and press conferences known as the "blue zone," and the "green zone," managed by the UAE, providing a space for diverse stakeholders including youth representatives, artists, businesses, and civil society actors to engage in discussions.

Top of Form

Summary of COP 28 Global Stocktake: The central outcome of COP28, it encompasses all negotiated elements and provides a foundation for countries to strengthen climate action plans, due by February 2025. Record-breaking Conference: COP28 in Dubai was the largest of its kind, with approximately 85,000 participants, including over 150 Heads of State and Government. Key Objectives for COP28: Phase out all fossil fuels through a just transition. Fossil fuel subsides stood at $7.1 trillion in 2022. Set clear timelines and implementation targets to align public financial flows with low carbon emissions. Triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. BloombergNEF Rating: COP28 received a 3.8 out of 10 success rating from BloombergNEF, indicating a marginal improvement compared to COP27 but still falling short of expectations. The rating was 2.2 points lower than the score for the Glasgow conference in 2021. Call for Bold Commitments: Parties at COP28 were urged to adopt bolder and clearer commitments, aligning with scientific recommendations to address climate change effectively. Implementation Challenges: Despite the sizable conference and global representation, the success of COP28 is seen as a modest upgrade, highlighting challenges in translating commitments into impactful actions. a)      Fossil Fuel Phase-Out and Transition to Renewable Energy: Adoption of a historic agreement committing parties to phase out fossil fuels from energy systems in a just and equitable manner, aiming for net-zero emissions globally by 2050. Commitment to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 as part of the effort to transition away from fossil fuels, accompanied by a focus on accelerating technologies like carbon capture and storage. However, such technologies are expensive for developing countries. Deadline for Strengthened Action Plans: Countries are expected to develop stronger climate action plans by February 2025 based on the outcomes of COP28, emphasizing the urgency for substantial and immediate measures. Loss and Damage Fund: Establishment of a fund to provide financial support to developing countries facing the immediate impacts of climate change, though the $700 million pledged falls short of estimated annual damage costs ranges from $100 billion to $580 billion. Private Sector Involvement: Launch of a $30 billion private market climate capital to mobilize private sector investment in low-carbon and climate-resilient projects, especially in emerging and developing economies. Lack of Ambition from Major Emitters: China, India, and Russia, among other major emitters, did not submit new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), hindering efforts to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Calls for Inclusivity: Criticism over the lack of participation and representation of the most affected and marginalized communities during COP28, contributing to calls for more inclusive decision-making processes. Climate Change effect on health is projected up to $580 b by 2030. This sector gained center stage during this conference. Global Urgency: Despite progress, concerns persist about the urgency and ambition needed to bridge the gap between current emission reduction commitments and the level required to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The overall rating for potential success at COP 28 is concluded in the figure below:

 

 

 

---

[1] The Katowice Rulebook, established at COP24, provides detailed guidelines for countries to transparently report their greenhouse gas emissions, progress toward climate goals, and support given or received for addressing climate change. It ensures a common framework, enhancing accountability, transparency, and consistency in reporting climate-related activities. Crucial for implementing the Paris Agreement, the Rulebook offers standardized rules, facilitating international assessment and comparison of countries' efforts in addressing climate change. It plays a vital role in building trust among nations and ensuring fair and accurate global accounting of climate actions.