COP 29 in Review: Failures, Progress, and What's Next
The
29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from
November 11 to 24, 2024. The summit brought together diplomats, stakeholders,
and activists, but despite its nickname, the "COP of Peace," it
largely failed to address the intersection of militarism and the climate
crisis. A key initiative, the "Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace,
Relief, and Recovery," was hailed as a milestone but fell short by not
addressing the role of escalating military expenditures in global emissions,
which now account for 5.5% of total emissions. While the initiative focused on
issues such as water scarcity and land degradation, it overlooked militarism's
environmental impact, weakening its effectiveness.
One
of the major outcomes of COP29 was the agreement on the New Collective
Quantified Goal (NCQG) for Climate Finance. After lengthy negotiations, a
target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035 was agreed upon, an increase
from the initial proposal of $250 billion. The deal also included a call for
scaling up total finance to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. However, this
target is widely regarded as insufficient, especially when compared to the $2.4
trillion spent globally on military expenditures in 2023. Critics argued that
this figure falls short by $1 trillion, considering the financial needs for
effectively tackling the climate crisis. Additionally, inflation will erode the
value of this commitment over time. The agreement also failed to explicitly
address the links between military activity, human rights, and climate change,
further undermining its comprehensiveness.
Another
disappointing outcome was the lack of progress on transitioning away from
fossil fuels, a critical issue highlighted during COP28’s Global Stocktake.
While Enrique Ochoa of Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for
dedicating 1% of military spending to reforestation programs, key negotiation
tracks such as the Mitigation Work Programme and the Just Transition Work
Programme remained unresolved. This omission led to calls from civil society
groups and organizations like the Women’s International League for Peace and
Freedom (WILPF) to push for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
A
positive development at COP29 was the adoption of the 10-year Lima Work
Programme on Gender (LWPG), which aims to integrate gender considerations into
climate policy and action. However, negotiations on this program were marred by
pushback on key issues, with language related to human rights and
intersectionality being watered down. Feminist groups and the Women and Gender
Constituency expressed concerns about the growing influence of anti-rights
movements and pledged to push for a stronger Gender Action Plan (GAP) at future
climate conferences.
In
terms of carbon markets, there was progress in operationalizing carbon markets
under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6. Agreements were reached on provisions
for carbon trades between countries, known as Internationally Traded Mitigation
Outcomes (ITMOs), as well as on carbon crediting mechanisms. While this is a
step forward, further clarifications and safeguards will be required to ensure these
markets lead to genuine emissions reductions and adhere to environmental and
social standards.
Looking
ahead to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the focus will be on implementing the new
finance commitments, deepening discussions on the linkages between debt and
climate, and revising the NCQG target by 2030. Countries will also need to
submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035. While some
nations, such as the UAE, the UK, and Brazil, presented their new targets at
COP29, there are lingering concerns about the ambition and credibility of these
commitments, especially concerning fossil fuel reduction.
COP29
revealed both the challenges and opportunities of multilateral climate action.
While progress was made in areas like gender and carbon markets, the
insufficient climate finance target, failure to address militarism, and lack of
a clear fossil fuel phase-out underscore the urgent need for more decisive and
equitable action.
One
of the major focuses of COP29 was climate finance, particularly the financial
commitments made by developed countries to support climate action in developing
nations. Developed countries had previously pledged to contribute at least $300
billion annually by 2035, but this figure fell far short of the $1.3 trillion demanded
by developing nations. This gap led to dissatisfaction, as the global south
argued that the funds were inadequate for their climate adaptation and
resilience needs. While the final agreement confirmed the $300 billion target,
it was viewed as a compromise and still deemed insufficient by many developing
countries.
A
significant achievement at COP29 was the finalization of the remaining sections
of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which addresses carbon markets. This marks
the completion of the Paris Agreement’s framework nearly a decade after its
initial signing. However, several setbacks occurred, including the failure to
reach agreements on implementing global stocktake outcomes and transitioning
away from fossil fuels[1].
These issues were deferred to COP30, highlighting critical gaps in the
negotiations.
The
summit was also marred by diplomatic tensions, especially surrounding
Azerbaijan’s presidency. Critics argued that the host country, which heavily
relies on fossil fuels, used the summit to attract oil and gas investments,
raising concerns about a conflict of interest. This controversy led to the
withdrawal of delegations, including Argentina’s, and a boycott by France’s
climate minister. Logistical challenges also complicated proceedings, with fossil
fuel executives being housed at the summit, further raising ethical questions
about the event’s priorities.
Despite
the NCQG target of $300 billion annually by 2035, it still fell short of the
$1.3 trillion demanded by developing nations. Many developing countries were
disappointed, feeling the agreement did not adequately address their financial
needs. The focus on private investments and voluntary contributions from
wealthier developing nations like China also caused dissatisfaction, with many
emphasizing the need for direct public funding to ensure sustainable climate
solutions.
The
final agreement did include a commitment to scaling up climate finance from
various sources, including both public and private investments. However, the
emphasis on investment-based goals, rather than direct financial provisions,
left many developing countries feeling that their needs were not being met. The
lack of concrete financial commitments from developed nations and the use of
delay tactics in negotiations further exacerbated frustrations.
In
addition to climate finance, COP29 addressed key issues such as carbon markets,
fossil fuel transition, and adaptation finance. While progress was made on
carbon markets, little movement occurred on other critical issues, including
operationalizing stocktake outcomes and addressing loss and damage finance.
These unresolved disagreements highlighted the deep political divisions between
developed and developing nations and the ongoing difficulty in finding common
ground on climate action.
As
COP30 in Brazil approaches, it will need to address many of the unresolved
issues from COP29, including the implementation of stocktake outcomes, clearer
definitions of climate finance, and stronger commitments to reducing fossil
fuel dependence. The 2025 NDC deadline will be a crucial moment for assessing
global progress toward the 1.5°C target. However, the lack of progress at COP29
has raised concerns about the future of climate negotiations, especially given
the political and economic challenges that may undermine momentum for urgent
action.
1.
Women's
International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF). (2024, November 29). COP29
in review: Failures, progress and what’s next. Retrieved December 1, 2024,
from https://www.wilpf.org
2.
Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2024). Global military
spending surges amid war, rising tensions, and insecurity. Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org
3.
Waskow, D.,
Larsen, G., Robinson, M., Alayza, N., Boehm, S., Srouji, J., Chakrabarty, S.,
Swaby, G., Warszawski, N., Garcia, M., Carter, R., Cogswell, N., Gerholdt, R.,
Molesworth, F., Yaakov, Y., Nilsson, K., McCoshan, K., Elliott, B., Null, S.,
& Layke, J. (2024, November 27). Key outcomes from COP29: Unpacking the
new global climate finance goal and beyond. World Resources Institute.
Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/insights/cop29-outcomes-next-steps
4. Carbon
Brief. (2024, November 24). COP29: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate
talks in Baku. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop29-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-baku
[1] In 2015, scientists from the Met
Office and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia reported
that global warming reached 1°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
The current rate of increase is 0.2°C
(0.36°F) per decade.
The
goals include limiting global warming to well below 2°C, ideally aiming for
1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.